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02/07/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - What has happened to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the post-lockout era hardly seems possible for the NHL's most valuable franchise.
But, the Leafs, who were valued at $521 million by Forbes back in November, have learned the hard way that being profitable doesn't necessarily translate to success on the ice.
When the 2010-11 regular season ended, it marked the sixth straight campaign that Toronto failed to qualify for the postseason -- the longest playoff drought in the storied Original Six franchise's history.
Lately, however, it seems that the Maple Leafs are ready to rejoin the ranks of NHL playoff teams, as a rebuilding project begun over three years ago by general manager Brian Burke is finally beginning to bear fruit.
The biggest difference for the Leafs this year has been the club's much- improved offensive attack. Toronto finished last season ranked 21st in the NHL with an average of 2.60 goals per game, but after 53 games this year, the Leafs are ranked fifth with 3.09 GPG.
The increased potency on offense currently has Toronto in good position to secure a playoff spot. With less than 30 games remaining in the regular season, the Maple Leafs are sitting seventh out of eight postseason seeds in the East. With 62 points, Toronto is just one point ahead of Ottawa for the conference's final playoff berth, but the Leafs are also just six points behind Boston for first place in the Northeast Division.
Still, Toronto head coach Ron Wilson wants his team to be careful not to get too caught up in watching what other Eastern Conference teams are doing on a nightly basis. The Maple Leafs instead need to focus on doing what needs to be done to gain points on their own.
"There's not a whole lot of scoreboard watching on our part," said Wilson. "We just try to take care of our own business and worry about ourselves."
Toronto has certainly been able to maximize its point earning potential in recent weeks, as the Maple Leafs have posted a 5-0-1 record in their last six trips to the ice. Prior to that run, the Leafs had dropped four of five and Toronto will need to avoid swoons like that down the stretch if it wants to punch its first ticket to the postseason since 2004.
One player who seems personally determined to get the Leafs back into the NHL's annual tournament is winger Phil Kessel. A former first-round pick by Boston in the 2006 draft, the 24-year-old American is finally coming into his own after briefly becoming a poster boy for Toronto's recent lack of success.
Kessel was acquired by Burke from the Bruins for a hefty price just prior to the 2009-10 season. The Leafs gave Boston their first and second round draft picks in 2010, as well as a first round pick in 2011. With Toronto missing the playoffs before both of those draft years, the division rival Bruins landed a pair of top-10 picks (Tyler Seguin, 2nd overall, 2010 & Dougie Hamilton, 8th overall, 2011) thanks to the Kessel trade.
To top it off, the rival Bruins won the Stanley Cup title last year and Seguin is looking like a stud forward in the making.
Yet, through it all Burke had faith in Kessel, and now after two okay seasons in Toronto, that loyalty is finally paying off.
It's not that Kessel was bad in his first two years as a Leaf, it's just that he simply wasn't the Hart Trophy candidate that he's become this season. He posted 30 goals and 55 points in 2009-10 and jumped to 32 goals and 32 assists last season, but Kessel is ready to blow those numbers out of the water in 2011-12.
Through 53 games, the Wisconsin native already has 29 goals to place him second only to Tampa Bay's Steven Stamkos. Kessel's 57 points are third in the NHL and just seven shy of tying his personal best total from last season.
The speedy Kessel has also done what all great players must; that is, make the players around him better. That is especially true of linemate Joffrey Lupul, who in his eighth NHL season and first-full year with the Leafs has already posted a career-high 55 points. Kessel's centerman, Tyler Bozak, a 25-year-old player who wasn't drafted, also has 31 points in 44 games to leave him one point shy of his career-best point total.
But, it hasn't just been Kessel's line that has the Leafs hopeful for a return to the postseason. Toronto is also allowing less goals this year than it did last year, even if its still only ranked 20th in the NHL in goals surrendered per game.
What has set Toronto's defensive game apart recently has been the club's ability to stop the opposition's power-play chances. The Leafs have gone 15 straight games without allowing a power-play goal, the longest such streak in the league since the Chicago Blackhawks went 19 straight games without giving up a power-play goal in 1969-70.
All told, Toronto is a perfect 22-for-22 over its current run, which is the longest such streak for the franchise since 1940-41.
If Toronto's penalty killers keep playing like that in front of goaltenders Jonas Gustavsson and James Reimer, it will make qualifying for the playoffs a whole lot easier.
It's taken several years, but things are finally looking up again for the Maple Leafs. Yet, with improved play comes increased expectations and failure to make the postseason this spring would really be a crushing disappointment.
Kessel and the Leafs have two months to prove they belong back in the postseason. For a storied franchise that has only been able to brag about financial success in recent years, a playoff appearance would be worth much more than a strong bottom line.
<< 'Melo sidelined for at least a week
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony will
likely be sidelined for at least a week because of the strained right groin he
sustained during Monday's game against Utah.
Anthony was hurt during the first quar
<< Lindell re-ups with Bills
Orchard Park, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Buffalo Bills re-signed kicker Rian
Lindell to a multi-year contract extension on Tuesday.
Lindell's 2011 season was cut short by a shoulder injury suffered against the
New York Jets in Week 9. H
<< Pekka a Rinne-stone Cowboy in Nashville
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Those not convinced that the Nashville
Predators are in it to win long term need to look no further than the massive
contract that general manager David Poile dished out to goaltender Pekka Rinne
back in Nove
<< Southern Illinois gets new opponent
Carbondale, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Southern Illinois University football
team will play at Miami University on Sept. 8 in the first meeting between the
programs.
The game replaces canceled meetings for both schools against Missouri, which
Stoke's Huth loses appeal of red card >>
Stoke-on-Trent, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Stoke City defender Robert Huth
had his red card appeal dismissed Tuesday by the English Football Association,
meaning he will serve a three-match ban.
Huth was sent off before halftime Saturday
Juninho, Leonardo return to Galaxy >>
Carson, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Galaxy announced Tuesday that
Brazilian duo Juninho and Leonardo will return to the club from Brasileiro
side Sao Paulo, as Juninho rejoins the club on a season-long loan and Leonardo
signs
Giants celebrate another Super Bowl title >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Giants celebrated another Super
Bowl title Tuesday with a parade up the Canyon of Heroes in lower Manhattan
and a ceremony at City Hall Plaza.
Thousands of fans lined the streets as playe
Reports: Ricky Williams to retire >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Baltimore Ravens running back Ricky Williams is planning to
retire, multiple media outlets reported on Tuesday.
The former NFL rushing champion assumed a reserve role with the Ravens this
past season, gaining 444 yards
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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NFL betting action is back! At MySportsbook, all of the pro football odds are posted for the NFC North. Check out how we see the four teams in this cloudy division stacking up this year in the chase for the playoffs! Green Bay Packers (+125) - With QB Aaron Rodgers leading the offense and DC Dom Capers working his magic on defense, the Packers are a real force to be reckoned with.
Virtually nothing changed on this offense for Green Bay from last year to this year, save for the addition of rookie OT Brian Bulaga to the bunch. Expect more huge numbers from the Pack, and a relatively favorable schedule should get them over the hump and into the playoffs once again this season. My NFL Betting Predictions: 11-5, 1st place in NFC North Minnesota Vikings (+130) - There are still too many unknowns about the Vikes this year. There is a huge difference between QB Brett Favre and either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels under center. Plus, is Favre comes back, is he really going to be able to keep his pick total under double digits again? Depth at running back looked like it might have been an issue with RB Chester Taylor fleeing in free agency, but drafting RB Toby Gerhart should pick up the difference. This defense is still suitable, but with a first place schedule, making the playoffs is going to be very tough regardless of whether #4 comes back or not.
There is a huge difference between QB Brett Favre and either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels under center. Plus, is Favre comes back, is he really going to be able to keep his pick total under double digits again? Depth at running back looked like it might have been an issue with RB Chester Taylor fleeing in free agency, but drafting RB Toby Gerhart should pick up the difference. This defense is still suitable, but with a first place schedule, making the playoffs is going to be very tough regardless of whether #4 comes back or not. Play this weekly NFL Football Contestto see if you can win.
Chicago Bears (+350) - The Bears are probably a bit of an overhyped team once again this year.No, we don't think it is plausible for QB Jay Cutler to have as bad of a season as he did last year, and we do think the additions of RB Chester Taylor and DE Julius Peppers are going to help immensely, but there's still something in the water in the Windy City that we aren't so sure about. Maybe Chicago finds its way to .500... but then again, maybe it doesn't. If Favre comes back, Cutler might be the worst quarterback in this division this year.
Detroit Lions (+1500) - The Lions are probably once again going to be the whipping boys for the rest of the teams in the NFC North, but they aren't just going to roll over and die once again. There is some real talent amassing on this team offensively, as the combination of QB Matt Stafford, RB Jahvid Best, WR Calvin Johnson, and TE Brandon Pettigrew should put a bunch of points on the board if the offensive line can even remotely hold up. The questions really lie on defense, where it feels like DT Ndamukong Suh is going to be trying to stop opposing teams all by himself. This year should show some marked improvement in the Motor City.
The Patriots will make NFL betting fans a lot of money this season, get in early and enjoy the cash.
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